Assessing the Impact: Speaker Scalise’s Potential Influence on the GOP

Republicans have chosen Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) as their nominee for the next House speaker, though this doesn’t guarantee his election due to the party’s slim majority and internal divisions. Nevertheless, Scalise is currently the most probable successor to Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). If elected as House speaker, what would his leadership entail?
Scalise is generally seen as a more conservative alternative to McCarthy, which could work in his favor within the GOP conference. However, securing the necessary 217 votes for his election remains uncertain. Some of McCarthy’s critics, such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), may support Scalise, but others are wary of his alignment with McCarthy and the Republican establishment. The delay in moving to a floor vote after the recent conference vote reflects this uncertainty.
Looking at Scalise’s stance on key issues, one immediate concern is the impending government shutdown. Scalise has historically been less inclined toward brinkmanship compared to Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), who led the hard-right House Freedom Caucus in shutdown battles. Scalise supported McCarthy’s deals with Democrats to end recent shutdowns and debt-ceiling disputes. However, reports suggest he may be hesitant about another temporary extension and open to a tougher bargaining stance for policy concessions.
Another significant issue is Ukraine funding. While most of Congress supports continuing aid to Ukraine, a growing segment of the House GOP opposes it. Scalise hasn’t made as strong pro-Ukraine-funding comments as McCarthy but has voted in favor of funding and against efforts to strip it. His position earns him a B on the pro-Ukraine Republicans for Ukraine scorecard, suggesting he supports Ukraine funding more than the median House Republican. The question here is how much political capital Scalise is willing to spend to secure this funding, as it may be a red line for some members.
Beyond these immediate policy areas, Scalise’s potential leadership encompasses several other significant issues, including those related to Donald Trump, President Biden, impeachment inquiries, government weaponization, and election-denialism. Scalise appears to be somewhat more aligned with the GOP mainstream than Jordan, though the party’s mainstream has shifted rightward in recent years. The question remains whether Scalise is considered capable of carrying the Republican mantle forward, whenever the House speaker vote on the House floor eventually occurs.